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Ørsted stock rebounds 5% from record lows: why analysts are split on future outlook

Ørsted stock (CPH: ORSTED) rebounded 5% on Tuesday from record low levels it touched after US government pulled the plug on a major offshore wind project, a blow that rattled investor confidence in one of the world’s top renewable energy developers.

The selloff also added to worries around the company’s $9.4 billion rights issue and raised fresh questions about its long-term position in the US renewables market.

Between August 25 and 26, Ørsted’s shares tumbled more than 16%, closing at a record low of 180 DKK on the Copenhagen exchange.

That drop capped a brutal month in which the stock lost 42% of its value, extending to a 51% slide over the past year.

In just two days, more than $8 billion was wiped from Ørsted’s market cap, bringing it down to around 75.3 billion kroner ($11.8 billion).

Ørsted stock: What’s behind the sharp selloff?

What triggered the selloff was the Trump administration’s surprise decision to halt Ørsted’s $1.5 billion Revolution Wind project off Rhode Island, citing national security concerns.

The project was almost finished and expected to power about 350,000 US homes by spring 2026, so the move shocked investors and cast serious doubt on Ørsted’s ambitious US expansion strategy.

Ørsted’s management didn’t waste time after the selloff. They pulled investors and advisers together in London to calm nerves and push forward with the company’s massive 60 billion DKK ($9.4 billion) capital raise, even as markets looked shaky.

Backing from the Danish government, which remains the majority shareholder, helped steady the picture a bit and reinforced just how important Ørsted is to Denmark’s energy strategy.

Despite the headlines, the company’s numbers show it isn’t falling apart.

For the first half of 2025, Ørsted delivered 13.9 billion DKK in EBITDA and 8.2 billion DKK in net profit, figures that suggest its core business is still performing well, even if investor sentiment has taken a hit.

What analysts say?

Analysts are divided but cautious when it comes to Ørsted’s outlook.

Bernstein’s analysts warned that the US project halt makes the stock harder to back, given how much the company is counting on expansion there and the uncertainty still hanging over the rights issue.

Jefferies’ analysts added that the setback creates a tougher backdrop for the capital raise, likely weighing on both pricing and demand from investors.

UBS, on the other hand, has stuck with its ‘Buy’ call but stressed that confidence won’t return until there’s more regulatory clarity in the US.

Analysts caution that if both the Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind projects were to collapse, Ørsted could be on the hook for as much as 120 billion DKK in penalties, a staggering figure that raises the stakes in its talks with US regulators.

Even so, a banking group led by JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley is standing behind the planned rights issue, betting that negotiations will eventually yield a breakthrough.

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